My apologies for the delay in updates - I am back now after grading + vacation!

Daily

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Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) August 31, Sept 14, Sept 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

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La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

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Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
December 21 2020 8826 40801 277 70 457 648
December 22 2020 8857 40931 279 70 403 650
December 23 2020 8908 41141 280 71 422 638
December 24 2020 8975 41322 283 73 461 649
December 25 2020 9000 41459 284 74 463 631
December 26 2020 9000 41530 285 74 400 546
December 27 2020 9064 41601 289 74 415 578
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 2 1.1 4.1% 17 0.15% 33 0.29%
10-19 4 4.0 14.2% 59 0.43% 82 0.6%
20-29 18 8.1 20.7% 86 0.41% 118 0.56%
30-39 12 5.7 16.9% 70 0.51% 96 0.71%
40-49 5 4.3 10.4% 43 0.41% 59 0.56%
50-59 8 4.1 10.8% 45 0.36% 59 0.47%
60-69 10 4.6 8.4% 35 0.3% 56 0.49%
70+ 5 6.7 14.5% 60 0.57% 75 0.72%
All ages 64 38.7 100% 415 0.4% 578 0.55%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
December 21 2020 5646 24519 166 65 273 428
December 22 2020 5666 24571 166 65 258 417
December 23 2020 5690 24669 166 65 266 413
December 24 2020 5727 24729 168 65 264 413
December 25 2020 5728 24776 168 65 252 355
December 26 2020 5733 24821 168 65 229 325
December 27 2020 5785 24852 169 65 247 361
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 1.1 4.9% 12 0.15% 16 0.21%
10-19 4 3.3 13.8% 34 0.4% 49 0.58%
20-29 16 3.6 13.8% 34 0.48% 47 0.66%
30-39 7 3.3 15.8% 39 0.46% 63 0.75%
40-49 4 2.7 12.6% 31 0.4% 51 0.66%
50-59 6 2.3 11.3% 28 0.29% 45 0.46%
60-69 5 2.9 15.4% 38 0.45% 52 0.62%
70+ 10 3.7 12.6% 31 0.44% 38 0.53%
All ages 52 22.9 100% 247 0.38% 361 0.56%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
December 21 2020 4258 16419 174 53 294 404
December 22 2020 4292 16448 177 54 291 422
December 23 2020 4308 16494 180 55 287 403
December 24 2020 4342 16560 183 55 299 411
December 25 2020 4366 16595 183 55 316 402
December 26 2020 4366 16630 183 55 281 365
December 27 2020 4393 16640 188 55 261 372
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 0.6 2.3% 6 0.11% 13 0.24%
10-19 6 3.4 11.5% 30 0.55% 44 0.81%
20-29 3 2.4 10.7% 28 0.62% 44 0.97%
30-39 4 3.0 13.4% 35 0.64% 56 1.03%
40-49 5 4.4 18% 47 0.94% 72 1.45%
50-59 3 4.1 17.6% 46 0.68% 55 0.81%
60-69 2 2.3 11.9% 31 0.49% 42 0.66%
70+ 3 3.0 14.6% 38 0.6% 46 0.73%
All ages 27 23.3 100% 261 0.58% 372 0.82%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
December 21 2020 9576 44021 215 52 561 870
December 22 2020 9608 44141 219 53 540 775
December 23 2020 9683 44424 221 53 567 775
December 24 2020 9735 44543 221 54 589 787
December 25 2020 9776 44687 221 54 516 721
December 26 2020 9775 44746 221 54 439 668
December 27 2020 9831 44819 222 55 408 676
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 2.0 5.4% 24 0.2% 36 0.3%
10-19 5 4.1 11% 49 0.3% 79 0.48%
20-29 16 10.9 25.7% 115 0.54% 186 0.87%
30-39 7 5.7 12.5% 56 0.41% 88 0.65%
40-49 8 5.0 10.1% 45 0.33% 83 0.61%
50-59 7 4.7 13.4% 60 0.42% 103 0.73%
60-69 5 4.4 11.4% 51 0.36% 68 0.48%
70+ 7 4.7 10.5% 47 0.36% 72 0.55%
All ages 56 41.6 100% 447 0.38% 715 0.6%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
December 21 2020 31778 289871 948 136 1746 2475
December 22 2020 31867 290042 961 163 1617 2417
December 23 2020 32005 290436 972 172 1531 2389
December 24 2020 32213 291311 979 174 1560 2349
December 25 2020 32374 292263 987 176 1692 2342
December 26 2020 32375 292811 988 176 1522 2125
December 27 2020 32555 293128 992 176 1447 2081
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 9 6.7 5.6% 81 0.13% 102 0.17%
10-19 19 14.9 11.7% 169 0.24% 231 0.33%
20-29 41 28.4 20.9% 303 0.29% 423 0.41%
30-39 33 20.0 15.3% 222 0.29% 323 0.42%
40-49 27 22.1 15.5% 224 0.34% 326 0.5%
50-59 29 17.9 13.4% 194 0.3% 276 0.42%
60-69 15 11.6 9.3% 134 0.25% 201 0.37%
70+ 7 9.1 8.3% 120 0.24% 199 0.4%
All ages 180 130.7 100% 1447 0.26% 2081 0.38%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
December 21 2020 458612 2299265 20168 4425 28655 44280
December 22 2020 461015 2303714 20355 4545 26999 42569
December 23 2020 463594 2309991 20519 4614 26821 41529
December 24 2020 466393 2317710 20647 4674 27498 40294
December 25 2020 467899 2324819 20703 4679 25503 37942
December 26 2020 468531 2330080 20734 4683 23733 34515
December 27 2020 470818 2332695 20829 4692 22377 34045
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 165 105.1 5.4% 1218 0.19% 1829 0.29%
10-19 291 229.7 11.9% 2654 0.35% 3986 0.53%
20-29 367 306.1 15.9% 3551 0.47% 5432 0.72%
30-39 325 286.6 14.8% 3314 0.44% 5109 0.67%
40-49 290 266.9 13.8% 3081 0.44% 4757 0.68%
50-59 314 295.9 15% 3346 0.41% 5143 0.63%
60-69 263 225.3 11.6% 2600 0.34% 3955 0.52%
70+ 272 233.1 11.7% 2613 0.41% 3834 0.6%
All ages 2287 1948.7 100% 22377 0.38% 34045 0.58%

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Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
55.2 60.3 56.4 38.7 47.1 23%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
55.8 22.9 32.4 30.1%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
82.2 23.3 25.7 40.1%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
60.5 47.7 87.4 36 55.6 24.3%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
38.1 32.5 40.7 130.7 176.7 18.2%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
58.5 52.7 71.8 1948.7 3247.6 26.2%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

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Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 2.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.57 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-01-17 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 4115"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red