Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 21 2020 | 8826 | 40801 | 277 | 70 | 457 | 648 |
| December 22 2020 | 8857 | 40931 | 279 | 70 | 403 | 650 |
| December 23 2020 | 8908 | 41141 | 280 | 71 | 422 | 638 |
| December 24 2020 | 8975 | 41322 | 283 | 73 | 461 | 649 |
| December 25 2020 | 9000 | 41459 | 284 | 74 | 463 | 631 |
| December 26 2020 | 9000 | 41530 | 285 | 74 | 400 | 546 |
| December 27 2020 | 9064 | 41601 | 289 | 74 | 415 | 578 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 1.1 | 4.1% | 17 | 0.15% | 33 | 0.29% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 4.0 | 14.2% | 59 | 0.43% | 82 | 0.6% |
| 20-29 | 18 | 8.1 | 20.7% | 86 | 0.41% | 118 | 0.56% |
| 30-39 | 12 | 5.7 | 16.9% | 70 | 0.51% | 96 | 0.71% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 4.3 | 10.4% | 43 | 0.41% | 59 | 0.56% |
| 50-59 | 8 | 4.1 | 10.8% | 45 | 0.36% | 59 | 0.47% |
| 60-69 | 10 | 4.6 | 8.4% | 35 | 0.3% | 56 | 0.49% |
| 70+ | 5 | 6.7 | 14.5% | 60 | 0.57% | 75 | 0.72% |
| All ages | 64 | 38.7 | 100% | 415 | 0.4% | 578 | 0.55% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 21 2020 | 5646 | 24519 | 166 | 65 | 273 | 428 |
| December 22 2020 | 5666 | 24571 | 166 | 65 | 258 | 417 |
| December 23 2020 | 5690 | 24669 | 166 | 65 | 266 | 413 |
| December 24 2020 | 5727 | 24729 | 168 | 65 | 264 | 413 |
| December 25 2020 | 5728 | 24776 | 168 | 65 | 252 | 355 |
| December 26 2020 | 5733 | 24821 | 168 | 65 | 229 | 325 |
| December 27 2020 | 5785 | 24852 | 169 | 65 | 247 | 361 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.1 | 4.9% | 12 | 0.15% | 16 | 0.21% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 3.3 | 13.8% | 34 | 0.4% | 49 | 0.58% |
| 20-29 | 16 | 3.6 | 13.8% | 34 | 0.48% | 47 | 0.66% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 3.3 | 15.8% | 39 | 0.46% | 63 | 0.75% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 2.7 | 12.6% | 31 | 0.4% | 51 | 0.66% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 2.3 | 11.3% | 28 | 0.29% | 45 | 0.46% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 2.9 | 15.4% | 38 | 0.45% | 52 | 0.62% |
| 70+ | 10 | 3.7 | 12.6% | 31 | 0.44% | 38 | 0.53% |
| All ages | 52 | 22.9 | 100% | 247 | 0.38% | 361 | 0.56% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 21 2020 | 4258 | 16419 | 174 | 53 | 294 | 404 |
| December 22 2020 | 4292 | 16448 | 177 | 54 | 291 | 422 |
| December 23 2020 | 4308 | 16494 | 180 | 55 | 287 | 403 |
| December 24 2020 | 4342 | 16560 | 183 | 55 | 299 | 411 |
| December 25 2020 | 4366 | 16595 | 183 | 55 | 316 | 402 |
| December 26 2020 | 4366 | 16630 | 183 | 55 | 281 | 365 |
| December 27 2020 | 4393 | 16640 | 188 | 55 | 261 | 372 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.6 | 2.3% | 6 | 0.11% | 13 | 0.24% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 3.4 | 11.5% | 30 | 0.55% | 44 | 0.81% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 2.4 | 10.7% | 28 | 0.62% | 44 | 0.97% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 3.0 | 13.4% | 35 | 0.64% | 56 | 1.03% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 4.4 | 18% | 47 | 0.94% | 72 | 1.45% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 4.1 | 17.6% | 46 | 0.68% | 55 | 0.81% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2.3 | 11.9% | 31 | 0.49% | 42 | 0.66% |
| 70+ | 3 | 3.0 | 14.6% | 38 | 0.6% | 46 | 0.73% |
| All ages | 27 | 23.3 | 100% | 261 | 0.58% | 372 | 0.82% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 21 2020 | 9576 | 44021 | 215 | 52 | 561 | 870 |
| December 22 2020 | 9608 | 44141 | 219 | 53 | 540 | 775 |
| December 23 2020 | 9683 | 44424 | 221 | 53 | 567 | 775 |
| December 24 2020 | 9735 | 44543 | 221 | 54 | 589 | 787 |
| December 25 2020 | 9776 | 44687 | 221 | 54 | 516 | 721 |
| December 26 2020 | 9775 | 44746 | 221 | 54 | 439 | 668 |
| December 27 2020 | 9831 | 44819 | 222 | 55 | 408 | 676 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 2.0 | 5.4% | 24 | 0.2% | 36 | 0.3% |
| 10-19 | 5 | 4.1 | 11% | 49 | 0.3% | 79 | 0.48% |
| 20-29 | 16 | 10.9 | 25.7% | 115 | 0.54% | 186 | 0.87% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 5.7 | 12.5% | 56 | 0.41% | 88 | 0.65% |
| 40-49 | 8 | 5.0 | 10.1% | 45 | 0.33% | 83 | 0.61% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 4.7 | 13.4% | 60 | 0.42% | 103 | 0.73% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 4.4 | 11.4% | 51 | 0.36% | 68 | 0.48% |
| 70+ | 7 | 4.7 | 10.5% | 47 | 0.36% | 72 | 0.55% |
| All ages | 56 | 41.6 | 100% | 447 | 0.38% | 715 | 0.6% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 21 2020 | 31778 | 289871 | 948 | 136 | 1746 | 2475 |
| December 22 2020 | 31867 | 290042 | 961 | 163 | 1617 | 2417 |
| December 23 2020 | 32005 | 290436 | 972 | 172 | 1531 | 2389 |
| December 24 2020 | 32213 | 291311 | 979 | 174 | 1560 | 2349 |
| December 25 2020 | 32374 | 292263 | 987 | 176 | 1692 | 2342 |
| December 26 2020 | 32375 | 292811 | 988 | 176 | 1522 | 2125 |
| December 27 2020 | 32555 | 293128 | 992 | 176 | 1447 | 2081 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 9 | 6.7 | 5.6% | 81 | 0.13% | 102 | 0.17% |
| 10-19 | 19 | 14.9 | 11.7% | 169 | 0.24% | 231 | 0.33% |
| 20-29 | 41 | 28.4 | 20.9% | 303 | 0.29% | 423 | 0.41% |
| 30-39 | 33 | 20.0 | 15.3% | 222 | 0.29% | 323 | 0.42% |
| 40-49 | 27 | 22.1 | 15.5% | 224 | 0.34% | 326 | 0.5% |
| 50-59 | 29 | 17.9 | 13.4% | 194 | 0.3% | 276 | 0.42% |
| 60-69 | 15 | 11.6 | 9.3% | 134 | 0.25% | 201 | 0.37% |
| 70+ | 7 | 9.1 | 8.3% | 120 | 0.24% | 199 | 0.4% |
| All ages | 180 | 130.7 | 100% | 1447 | 0.26% | 2081 | 0.38% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 21 2020 | 458612 | 2299265 | 20168 | 4425 | 28655 | 44280 |
| December 22 2020 | 461015 | 2303714 | 20355 | 4545 | 26999 | 42569 |
| December 23 2020 | 463594 | 2309991 | 20519 | 4614 | 26821 | 41529 |
| December 24 2020 | 466393 | 2317710 | 20647 | 4674 | 27498 | 40294 |
| December 25 2020 | 467899 | 2324819 | 20703 | 4679 | 25503 | 37942 |
| December 26 2020 | 468531 | 2330080 | 20734 | 4683 | 23733 | 34515 |
| December 27 2020 | 470818 | 2332695 | 20829 | 4692 | 22377 | 34045 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 165 | 105.1 | 5.4% | 1218 | 0.19% | 1829 | 0.29% |
| 10-19 | 291 | 229.7 | 11.9% | 2654 | 0.35% | 3986 | 0.53% |
| 20-29 | 367 | 306.1 | 15.9% | 3551 | 0.47% | 5432 | 0.72% |
| 30-39 | 325 | 286.6 | 14.8% | 3314 | 0.44% | 5109 | 0.67% |
| 40-49 | 290 | 266.9 | 13.8% | 3081 | 0.44% | 4757 | 0.68% |
| 50-59 | 314 | 295.9 | 15% | 3346 | 0.41% | 5143 | 0.63% |
| 60-69 | 263 | 225.3 | 11.6% | 2600 | 0.34% | 3955 | 0.52% |
| 70+ | 272 | 233.1 | 11.7% | 2613 | 0.41% | 3834 | 0.6% |
| All ages | 2287 | 1948.7 | 100% | 22377 | 0.38% | 34045 | 0.58% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55.2 | 60.3 | 56.4 | 38.7 | 47.1 | 23% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55.8 | 22.9 | 32.4 | 30.1% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 82.2 | 23.3 | 25.7 | 40.1% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60.5 | 47.7 | 87.4 | 36 | 55.6 | 24.3% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38.1 | 32.5 | 40.7 | 130.7 | 176.7 | 18.2% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58.5 | 52.7 | 71.8 | 1948.7 | 3247.6 | 26.2% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 2.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.57 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-01-17 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 4115"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges